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Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-537-2005

Drivers y Software: para instalar drivers para la capturadora NPG Real DVD Stu. With the alleged names of next years drivers in hand, we try to predict which one will be the #1 seller of 2021. 0:47 – The (alleged) names of 2021 drivers. 4:57 – HOT SEAT: We predict the #1 selling driver in 2021.

© Author(s) 2005. This work is licensed under
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Special issue: Quantifying predictability

https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-537-2005
© Author(s) 2005. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

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S. C. Chou,J. F. Bustamante,and J. L. Gomes
  • Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies – CPTEC, National Institute for Space Research, INPE, Brazil
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  • Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies – CPTEC, National Institute for Space Research, INPE, Brazil
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Abstract. Seasonal forecasts run by the Eta Model over South America were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability at different time scales, seasonal, monthly and weekly for one-year period runs. The model domain was configured over most of South America in 40km horizontal resolution and 38 layers. The lateral boundary conditions were taken from CPTEC GCM forecasts at T62L28. The sea surface temperature was updated daily with persisted anomaly during the integrations. The total time integration length was 4.5 months. The Eta seasonal forecasts represented reasonably well the large scale precipitation systems over South America such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The total amounts were comparable to observations. The season total precipitation forecasts from the driver model exhibited large overestimate. In general, the largest precipitation errors were found in ASON season and the smallest in FMAM. The major error areas were located along the northern and northeastern coast and over the Andes. These areas were present in both models. The monthly precipitation totals indicated that the intra-seasonal variability, such as the monsoonal onset, was reasonably captured by the model. The equitable threat score and the bias score showed that the Eta Model forecasts had higher precipitation predictability over the Amazon Region and lower over Northeast Brazil. The evaluation of the precipitation forecast range showed that at the fourth month the forecast skill was still comparable to the first month of integration. Comparisons with the CPTEC GCM forecasts showed that the Eta improved considerably the forecasts from the driver model. Five-member ensemble runs were produced for the NDJF rainy season. Both driver model and Eta Model forecasts showed some internal variability in the SACZ and over the Andes regions. Comparison of the Eta Model seasonal forecasts against climatology showed that in general the model produced additional useful information over the climatology. Transient variability was evaluated by tracking the frontal passages along the eastern coast. The frontal timing was no longer captured by the model but some indication of the frequency and of the northward movement was given by the model forecast. Drivers quanta mobile phones & portable devices bluetooth. Weekly precipitation totals were evaluated for the São Francisco Basin. Some parameters, such as the mean and the standard deviation of the 7-day total precipitation, were comparable to observations. The correlations between the forecast and the observed 7-day series were positive, but low.

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How to cite. Chou, S. C., Bustamante, J. F., and Gomes, J. L.: Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-537-2005, 2005.

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A Department of Transportation (DOT) physical exam is the evaluation required in order to operate a commercial vehicle. It is referred to as a “medical fitness for duty” examination, which ensures that each driver is capable and healthy enough to successfully complete the duties associated with commercial driving. A DOT physical exam consists of acertified medical professional completing an exam that will determine whether or not the driver is fit for workthrough an evaluation process relating to the daily job duties associated with a commercial driver. The DOTphysical also has a drug and alcohol component which tests for various drugs and the current alcohol level of thedriver during the exam. A DOT physical exam is valid for up to 24 months. The medical examiner may also issue amedical examiner's certificate for less than 24 months when it is desirable to monitor a condition, such as highblood pressure.

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